Welcome to our Renewals Holiday Countdown. Throughout December we’re bringing insights from SiriusPoint experts on what we’re likely to see during the 1.1 renewals. Each day, we’ll share commentary relating to different business lines.
Reinsurance
First up is David Govrin, Group President and Chief Underwriting Officer, who tells us about dynamics in the reinsurance space.
“The discipline shown by reinsurers within the market is expected to hold as we head into 2025. Reinsurers are holding firm on rate, retention and structure in geographies and product where it is necessary and having constructive dialogue while carefully managing risk, aggregates, and limits.
US casualty remains a focus, especially proportional ceding commissions, where market dynamics are challenging due to the continued impacts of inflation, both economic and social. Reinsurers are considering where in the US casualty market to deploy capital, and whether they are getting paid adequately based on limits, lines of business, and attachment profiles. As always, markets continue to emphasize the importance of underwriting discipline and proactive, transparent dialogue with brokers and clients.”
Life Reinsurance
Next we hear from Florian Boecker, Head of Life Re, who tells us what he expects to see in the life reinsurance market throughout 2025.
“The Life reinsurance industry has moved on from the shock event of the COVID pandemic. While there remain some lingering adverse effects in mortality and morbidity experience, they have been priced in by now and most of the markets have returned to a state of tough but rational competition…
For 2025 we expect the Life reinsurance market to grow roughly in line with previous years. The competitive landscape will continue to shift as players adjust their risk appetite to the changing environment and brokers are getting more active in the Life market. Overall, we believe that the coming year is going to present attractive growth opportunities.”
Energy
On day three of our Renewals Holiday Countdown feature, Head of Energy, John Hopper, talks softening in the upstream energy market, changes in the London energy liability market, and capacity deployments…
“There is softening in the Upstream Energy market amid an oversupply of capacity. We’re also seeing a divide between risks, such as small to medium sized programs and midstream risks which are largely holding firm on rate, while subsea construction risks are still proving difficult to place.
Major exploration and production programmes and national oil companies will likely see high single to low double digit rate reductions, and rates are likely to trend downwards on more sought-after business until there is a significant market loss or capacity changes in the market. Treaty renewals typically affect the rating, however Baltimore Bridge is unlikely to have an impact on the 1/1 renewals with flat to small reductions anticipated.
The London Energy Liability Market has seen changes over the last year with yet more large composite insurers continuing to scale back previously very large statement capacity deployments to a more sustainable offering. This is creating an environment where both rating and policy conditions will continue to have to remain strong to attract alternative market capacity.”
Casualty
In today’s Renewals Holiday Countdown, Global Head of Casualty, Chris Larson shares his insights and tells us more about what he’s experiencing in the casualty space.
“The Casualty market has experienced challenges over the last year with a number of ongoing dynamics within the industry shaping the rates heading into 1/1 renewals and 2025. There is scrutiny and pressure on rate adequacy in the U.S., particularly following a notable pattern of adverse development across various lines. In order to understand the market behaviour, it is critical to monitor both economic and non-economic loss inflation. The factors driving social inflation within the Casualty market, one of which being litigation financing, suggest the dynamics driving claims will remain unchanged.”
Aviation & Space
Next up in our Renewals Holiday Countdown, Head of Aviation & Space, Marc Wyss, provides his thoughts on 1:1 renewals, discussing reinsurance costs, pressure from overcapacity, and the impact of geopolitical risks.
“While reinsurance costs remain stable, the direct aviation insurance landscape is facing pressure from overcapacity, intense competition, and resultant deterioration of rates. We’re also seeing a rise in the cost of insurance claims due to higher aircraft values, increased travel, and inflation, which required careful portfolio management and underwriting discipline.
As we look ahead to 2025, the anticipated outcome of the Russian-Ukraine claim holds the potential to reduce working capacity and bring some stability back to the market. The ongoing conflict, however, continues to affect the market, particularly with issues surrounding non-returned aircraft. The conflict, coupled with other geopolitical factors will remain a concern. That said, aviation and space is a dynamic and evolving market, which is focused on innovation, sustainability and addressing emerging risks.”
Marine
On the final day of our Renewals Holiday Countdown, Chris Fenn, Head of Marine, London, provides his thoughts on risks, capacity, and competition in the marine market.
“The Marine insurance outlook for 2025 is challenging given that Maritime trade will continue to be impacted by geopolitical events such as those in the Middle East and Ukraine, together with the difficulties being experienced by vessels in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea and Black Sea. Large and CAT loss events like the collapse of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge and Hurricanes Helene and Milton have impacted insurers during 2024.
In addition to geopolitical and large loss events, several other factors will influence marine insurance at renewals and in the near future. Inflationary pressures are driving up claims costs, regulatory changes are impacting underwriting practices and claims management, and technological advancements, such as autonomous vessels and advanced tracking systems, are altering risk profiles. The industry will closely monitor these elements and the way they shape the marine landscape.
As we navigate 1:1 renewals today, capacity remains high and competition remains strong, which has resulted in rates softening. We expect this trend to continue into 2025.”
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